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Speaker 1

00:00

-♪ ♪ -♪ ♪ Moving on. Our main story tonight concerns pandemics. You know, the thing every little virus could 1 day grow into.

Speaker 2

00:11

Wait, even me?

Speaker 1

00:13

Yeah, maybe even you, mystery virus. Wow, that's great!

Speaker 2

00:17

Thanks for helping me believe in myself, John. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to the Mall of America. Whee!

Speaker 1

00:26

Oh, okay, have fun. I'm probably gonna regret that. And I know you might be thinking right now, John, shut the fuck up.

Speaker 1

00:34

No 1 wants to hear any more about the coronavirus. And I do get that, which is why we're not actually gonna talk about the current pandemic tonight. We're gonna talk about the next 1 instead, which I know sounds even less appealing, but look, we are the show we are. If you want to see a British person do something hot or interesting, go watch Bridgerton.

Speaker 1

00:53

Lot of jizzing and blankets on that show. However much you expect, there's significantly more. But now might also be the most important time to talk about this, because scientists attempted to warn us about the next pandemic long before the current 1 hit, and we didn't really listen. In fact, 17 years ago, just after the SARS epidemic was contained, a leading scientist was on 60 Minutes sounding a chilling warning.

Speaker 3

01:17

What worries me the most is that we're gonna miss the next emerging disease, that we're gonna suddenly find a SARS virus that moves from 1 part of the planet to another, wiping out people as it moves along. Something more lethal than SARS is what worries you. That's something to be keeping you awake at night.

Speaker 1

01:33

Yeah, it is, because that is a hauntingly spot-on prediction there. I kind of wanted him to continue. Just spitballing here, what if that guy from The Apprentice becomes president?

Speaker 1

01:42

Or some lonely goon at Harvard invents a website that destroys the fabric of society as we know it. That's something to keep you awake at night, too. Look, I know this current coronavirus might feel like a once-in-a-lifetime nightmare, but it's actually part of a global trend. Because the total number of infectious disease outbreaks has increased significantly since 1980.

Speaker 1

02:00

We've seen outbreaks like SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, a series of Ebola outbreaks, most notably in 2014, MERS in 2015, Zika that same year, and of course, the current virus that we're all enduring, which is the main reason why I'm currently speaking to you completely alone from what looks like the Pillsbury Doughboy's arse crack. And the truth is, if we're not very careful, the next pandemic could well be even worse.

Speaker 4

02:24

There are viruses currently circulating in wildlife. They essentially kill 60 to 70 percent of the people they infect.

Speaker 1

02:32

The virus that causes COVID-19 might just be a dress rehearsal for the big 1 later.

Speaker 4

02:37

This is not, by any stretch of the imagination, the worst Mother Nature has to offer us.

Speaker 1

02:43

Well, That doesn't sound great. And look, I know this isn't the most important thing there, but what is it with disease experts and predicting upcoming pandemics while on boats? That's a terrible use of a boat.

Speaker 1

02:54

They're supposed to be chill. Read the boat rules. 1, the captain's always right. 2, only fish on days that end in Y.

Speaker 1

03:00

And 3, no grim tidings of the viral apocalypse. Did you hear that? That's a boat foul, Dr. Bummer.

Speaker 5

03:05

Boat foul!

Speaker 1

03:07

Indeed. And while you would hope that the last year would have been a wake-up call to everyone, those who study pandemics are skeptical that we've learned nearly enough.

Speaker 6

03:15

I think the, what I've seen in history of looking at these pathogens over time is that we usually go right back to business as usual. As soon as the thing ends, as soon as we have a drug, as soon as we have a vaccine, as soon as we can kind of ghettoize these diseases into marginalized populations, we don't really do the fundamental social change that we could do.

Speaker 1

03:36

Exactly. Unfortunately, there is every chance that after all this is over, we'll end up treating the coronavirus like a really bad fart at Thanksgiving. That is, waiting patiently for it to dissipate so we can never speak of it again, and collectively pretend that it didn't just kill grandma. So, given all of that, tonight, let's talk about the next pandemic.

Speaker 1

03:54

Specifically, where new infectious diseases come from, why they're on the rise, and what we can do to limit them. And let's start with how we got into our current situation. The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by a novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, which originated in animals before jumping to humans. And that is by no means unusual.

Speaker 1

04:12

It's estimated that up to 75 percent of new or emerging infectious diseases come from animals. They're called zoonotic diseases, or zoonoses, not to be confused with zoonos, which for the record, is a very hurtful thing to call a teenager who's already got enough to deal with. And COVID is by no means the only zoonotic disease out there. There are an estimated 1.7 million currently undiscovered viruses in mammals and birds, of which between 6 and 800,000 could have the ability to infect humans.

Speaker 1

04:42

And lots of animal species are hosts for zoonotic disease. Birds and pigs can harbor influenza, chimpanzees with a bridge of HIV to humans, and turtles can carry salmonella, which is something that we all remember from 1 of the darkest episodes of the Ninja Turtles cartoon. That's right, 1 of their turtle powers seemed to be inadvertently killing April O'Neil. Now, 1 of the biggest vectors for transmitting viruses is famously bats.

Speaker 1

05:06

They've been linked to Ebola, the deadly Nipah virus, and COVID-19. In fact, here is that eerily prescient expert that you saw earlier, warning of the dangers of a popular bat-based tourist attraction back in 2016.

Speaker 3

05:19

The bats here in this cave are the same bats that carry SARS virus. When they're up there, they urinate and defecate right on top of the tourists that are walking through. And all you've got to do is be that 1 person to breathe in at the wrong time and suddenly you've been infected with a virus that is not only potentially lethal to people, it could cause a future pandemic.

Speaker 1

05:42

That's horrible. And not just the disease part, just the very concept of this walk-in bat toilet being a tourist destination. That might be the worst tourist attraction since Disneyland put Johnny Depp animatronics in the Pirates of the Caribbean ride.

Speaker 1

05:56

Come on, Disney! There's kids here! They're here to watch some jolly nautical rapists and thieves, Not a weird, sad millionaire doing a B-plus Keith Richards. Now, there are reasons that bats are such good hosts for disease.

Speaker 1

06:09

They can fly, so they can cover large distances. They've developed specialized immune systems that don't overreact to infections, which keeps them from falling ill, and they are insanely plentiful. Nearly a quarter of the world's mammal species are bats. And if you're thinking, well, that's great, then there's an easy fix here.

Speaker 1

06:26

Let's simply kill all bats. That's actually not a great idea for multiple reasons. Not only are they crucial elements of our ecosystem, they're also way cuter than they're often given credit for. Just look at this fuzzy little goober eating a banana.

Speaker 1

06:41

Look at this 1 scarfing down a watermelon. And just look at This little guy trying to absolutely house a single grape. Look at him go. Who's struggling with a grape?

Speaker 1

06:50

You are. You're struggling with a grape, you little goth mouse. Also, it is important to remember that the fact that we may have caught COVID from bats isn't so much their fault as it is ours. Because outbreaks of bat viruses don't tend to come from them seeking us out.

Speaker 1

07:07

They usually happen when a human takes a bat somewhere it'd never go on its own, or intrudes on its home. And that actually brings us to the first big thing we're doing that may well bring about the next pandemic. And that is erasing the buffer between civilization and wildlife. Scientists have repeatedly warned us about the dangers of deforestation, urbanization, mining, and generally supplanting natural habitats, which has been far more extensive than you might think.

Speaker 7

07:34

Many people imagine there's this untouched wilderness because they see it on their TV screens. But the reality is, there's really not a lot of wild left out there.

Speaker 1

07:43

We've already lost nearly 90 percent of the wetlands around the world. We've transformed the forests, our grasslands. We've converted 75 percent of the land that is not covered by ice.

Speaker 8

07:57

3 quarters of the terrestrial surface has been changed. A lot of it just to feed 1 species.

Speaker 1

08:02

It's true. We've changed 3 quarters of the Earth's land areas. And while some of that was necessary, we have also changed a lot to build dumb, pointless shit that no 1 really wants or needs, like paintball courses or novelty t-shirt shops or Salt Lake City.

Speaker 1

08:18

And that banishing boundary has brought increased risk. Over 30 percent of new and emerging diseases are linked to deforestation and land use change. Take the Amazon. Studies have documented that clearing patches of forest appears to create the ideal habitat along forest edges for the type of mosquito that's the most common transmitter of malaria there.

Speaker 1

08:37

Or take West Africa. The first victim of 2014's Ebola outbreak was a young boy who'd been seen playing near a tree infested with bats before he got sick. He lived in a small village where much of the surrounding forest had been destroyed by foreign mining and timber operations, and evidence suggests that that is what brought the bats into his village. And before you think that this is just an overseas problem, it is worth remembering that 1 of the clearest examples of habitat destruction fueling an emerging disease happened right here in the United States, where Lyme disease was first identified in Connecticut in the 1980s, and was driven by suburbanization.

Speaker 9

09:15

What we found is that the probability that a tick is going to acquire an infection when it feeds on a white-footed mouse Is about 90% as we fragment the landscape we chop up continuous forest into little bits We lose species they disappear 1 of the last creatures is the white-footed mouse. So as we reduce diversity, we're losing the species that protect us and favoring the ones that make us sick.

Speaker 1

09:43

Right. We fragmented the landscape and that drove out predators, leaving creatures like white-footed mice, who are the main culprits when it comes to Lyme disease transmission. And you know what that means? Fuck white-footed mice.

Speaker 1

09:56

They can go fuck themselves, unlike, of course, rats, who can and should go fuck each other. But it's not just us moving closer to animals, it's that more and more, we are bringing wild animals into contact with us through the wildlife trade. Now, sometimes that takes the form of exotic pets, whether it's when Paris Hilton got a kinkajou named Baby Love, or this random British man's extremely ill-advised roommate.

Speaker 10

10:20

An ordinary street in Kent, and a suburban semi with a normal conservatory. But it's licensed for something far from normal. Is a crocodile a suitable pet to have in a suburban house like this?

Speaker 11

10:34

He's certainly mellow. He's not the same animal he would be because he's adjusted, shall we say, to human life. Having something that no 1 else has got is an interesting thing.

Speaker 1

10:45

I mean, sure, I guess that's true, but even if you insist on owning a wild animal, which you really shouldn't, why a crocodile? They're not remotely cuddly. You're basically flooding your broom closet to make room for a carnivorous surfboard.

Speaker 1

10:58

The only acceptable human use for any crocodile or alligator is as the star of the internet's single greatest music video. ♪

Speaker 4

11:06

It's like Fuck Friday You fucking losers

Speaker 1

11:08

♪ ♪

Speaker 4

11:11

It's like Fuck Friday

Speaker 1

11:16

♪ Excellent. That is excellent. That song is catchier than SARS in a good way.

Speaker 1

11:23

The point here is exotic pet ownership has caused real problems. In 2003, 47 people across 6 states caught monkey pox, which had never infected humans outside of Africa after having contact with infected prairie dogs purchased as pets. And in 2006, Paris Hilton had to go to the hospital after her kinkajou bit her. And it's hard to say which was worse there, a US monkeypox outbreak or baby love's shocking betrayal.

Speaker 1

11:48

Et tu, kinkajou? But perhaps the most famous way wild animals can spread disease to humans is when they're sold for consumption. And the phrase you're probably already thinking of right now is wet markets, like the 1 in Wuhan, which may well have been the breakout site of COVID-19. And you should know here, the term wet market is used incredibly broadly and often incorrectly.

Speaker 1

12:10

Many wet markets are essentially just places where fresh meat, seafood, and produce are sold, not unlike a farmer's market. And they can be key sources of fresh, affordable food around the world, especially in developing areas where there isn't, you know, a Trader Joe's 3 blocks away. However, some of those markets do sell wildlife like bats and snakes. And conditions in some of those wildlife markets can be ideal for disease transmission.

Speaker 5

12:36

So, here in cages right next to each other, we've got, adult raccoons, next to capybara, which is from South America, this is from North America. Cages right next to each other. This is the biggest rodent in the world.

Speaker 5

12:50

And on top of here, I think, are these... Marmosets... On top of the tepu bera.

Speaker 12

12:58

What we just saw here is, It's like a biological warfare lab. Any 1 animal can transmit a pathogen to another. Somebody buys it, handles it, takes it home as a pet or eats it.

Speaker 12

13:10

Boom. We have another pandemic.

Speaker 1

13:13

Right. When wild animals from different parts of the world are held in close proximity with weakened immune systems due to stress, pathogens can easily jump from 1 species to another and potentially to humans, which should, at the very least, make you seriously rethink your island in Animal Crossing. You honestly still think it's a good idea to live in close proximity with a raccoon, an owl, a gorilla, a tiger, a sheep, a koala, an octopus, a hamster, a penguin, a rhino, and a chicken named Goose. All of whom traveled there from different parts of the world.

Speaker 1

13:43

That's not an island paradise. It's a diseased Chernobyl waiting to happen. Shut that shit down! And listen, I know it doesn't sound great whenever someone, particularly with this accent, starts tut-tutting about how people in other countries feed themselves and make a living.

Speaker 1

13:59

And, for what it's worth, Before we go tell everyone else what to do, we might want to acknowledge that our track record on mixing animals isn't great either. 1 expert that we spoke to said a major concern of theirs is state fares, which does kind of make sense. State and agricultural fares have been linked to multiple disease outbreaks, with 1 in 2012 that infected over 300 people, mostly children, across 10 states. That probably explains why fair goers have been repeatedly warned, no kissing pigs.

Speaker 1

14:28

And look, it's easy to think, come on, I'd never kiss a pig. But are you really sure about that? What about this 1? Now you're not so sure, are you?

Speaker 1

14:36

What about this 1 right here? Now you're even more confused. How about this pig? Exactly, I thought so.

Speaker 1

14:42

Well, I've got great news. This hot little pork chop's been watching you across the bar all night. It's down for some stuff. And America is actually ground 0 for another dangerous practice here, factory farming.

Speaker 1

14:54

It's something that started here, but has since skyrocketed around the world, to the point that factory farms now supply more than 90 percent of meat globally, and 99 percent of meats domestically. In factory farms, livestock are bred and confined in ways that can enable viruses to spread among them much more easily.

Speaker 13

15:12

We have several thousand hogs packed in together, and they're all genetically largely the same, then it selects for the most virulent pathogens that are possible. And so, in the course of industrializing livestock production, we are also industrializing the pathogens that circulate among them.

Speaker 1

15:30

Exactly. I know it's hard to believe, but the cold mechanized factories that cram animals together before stamping their flesh into plastic meat molds and ejecting the outcome into supermarket freezer sections across the nation might be doing something bad. And when you put all of this together, it does begin to seem like we're actively trying to start pandemics. Which brings us to the obvious question, how do we stop doing that?

Speaker 1

15:54

Well, the most effective way would be to close down all wildlife markets, ban factory farming, stop eating meat altogether, halt deforestation, shut down all state fairs, and definitely take away Paris Hilton's kinkajou. But obviously, none of those are going to happen. For 1 thing, we know that kinkajou bites. But also, draconian measures are just not going to work here.

Speaker 1

16:14

For instance, if you abolish wildlife markets, that could cause food scarcity and would likely just lead to an explosion in black market trade of wild animals. The reason we know that is, that's reportedly exactly what happened when China attempted just such a ban in 2003 in response to SARS. Which is not to say that we shouldn't try to reduce harmful practices, because we clearly should. Many experts argue for what's called a 1 health perspective, where we recognize that the health of humans, animals, and our environment are all interconnected, and take that into account when making decisions on everything, from environmental regulations to urban planning.

Speaker 1

16:48

And there are gonna need to be lots of smaller solutions here too, which will look different everywhere because, crucially, everywhere is different. Take Thailand. They've had some real success in preventing outbreaks there by providing farmers with a phone app to flag any problems that they see. That's very clever.

Speaker 1

17:26

Because with that app, farmers there now have a way to spot a possibly sick bird that could inform broader public policy, which isn't just effective disease prevention, it was also, interestingly, the working title of this show. Now, that scheme has been a success, partly because it preserves people's livelihoods and aligns farmers' interests with those of their larger community. And there will be thousands of small ideas like that that could end up making a real difference. And look, there is no denying all of this is going to cost money.

Speaker 1

17:55

And unfortunately, some scientists doubt our appetite for long-term spending on this. Just listen to this researcher in Brazil make that exact point while taking samples from bats.

Speaker 14

18:05

It's extremely difficult to get funding for our kind of research. Now, during the pandemic, it has been a little easier. But as soon as the virus crisis is over, our financial worries will return.

Speaker 14

18:22

I'm not very optimistic.

Speaker 1

18:24

Yeah, that's not great, is it? Because, I'm not very optimistic isn't really what you want to hear from someone scraping germs out of a bat. That's a woman who literally knows her shit, so we need to spend however much is necessary to change her answer there.

Speaker 1

18:39

And I'm not saying that this will be cheap. 1 estimate for the cost of global prevention runs between 22 and 31 billion dollars a year. But, bear in mind, even if it was double that, the cost of COVID-19 in the U.S. Alone is estimated to be over 16 trillion.

Speaker 1

18:54

So, to put it mildly, it's fucking worth it. And I know right now, that might seem obvious. The problem is, as we come out the other side of this pandemic, there is a real danger that we're gonna start to get complacent. So, for the good of future generations, and in all likelihood, us in a few years' time, we really need to remember the way we feel right now and invest accordingly.

Speaker 1

19:17

Because the truth is, you never know where the next pandemic is going to come from.

Speaker 4

19:22

Hey, y'all, remember me?

Speaker 6

19:24

I'm back!

Speaker 2

19:25

And I'm gonna do what the coronavirus couldn't. I'm gonna kill Tom Hanks!

Speaker 1

19:30

Wait, please don't do that, Virus. Marina Wilson, too.

Speaker 2

19:34

They're gonna call me Oliver's Plague.

Speaker 1

19:36

I really don't want you to be called that.

Speaker 2

19:39

Oh, I think it's got a ring to it.

Speaker 1

19:41

I absolutely don't. The point is, we have got to remember this feeling. It's our only hope.

Speaker 1

19:47

That's our show. Thank you so much for watching. We'll see you next week. Good night.

Speaker 2

19:50

Ooh, ooh, ooh, Jon, when I first break out, do you think a bunch of celebrities will make a video of themselves singing, -"Imagine"?

Speaker 1

19:57

-"Imagine"? I mean, probably, to be honest. Hey, I've

Speaker 2

19:59

got a surprise for you.

Speaker 1

20:00

What is your surprise?

Speaker 4

20:01

I

Speaker 6

20:01

can spread through Zoom!

Speaker 1

20:03

How can you spread through Zoom? Oh!

Speaker 2

20:06

Nature is full of miracles. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to Disney World, and I'm going to give everyone bloody diarrhea!

Speaker 1

20:16

I hate you