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Speaker 1

00:00

-♪ ♪ -♪ ♪ I'd like to talk about the weather, and I mean all of it. The hots, the wets, the whooshes, the burrs, and, of course, the flashy, flashy boom-booms. Predicting the weather accurately is a multibillion-dollar industry that can affect businesses and literally save lives. So there is a lot of pressure on weather forecasters, which might explain why they sometimes snap.

Speaker 2

00:24

I want you guys to say, wow, that's great news, it's gonna be 60 on Friday. Yeah, but

Speaker 3

00:28

you said it's

Speaker 4

00:29

gonna snap.

Speaker 2

00:30

Well, I mean, what do you want me to do? Lie to you? I'll put 70 every day next time.

Speaker 2

00:34

Here's some wind. Here's some temperature. 20s. Feels like 19, or it feels like 70.

Speaker 2

00:40

I don't know. 47, partly cloudy, southwest breeze 10 to 15. Here's a 60. I don't know if that's good enough for you guys.

Speaker 2

00:48

Get excited. Maybe I'll disappoint you with a seven-day here in a few minutes.

Speaker 1

00:51

-$50,000. -$50,000. I honestly, honestly wish all local news was delivered like that. A gas station got robbed.

Speaker 1

01:00

That's not my fucking fault. In traffic, there should be no delays in getting you home to your sad lives and your dumpy, ugly kids. And in sports, any athlete on any team could fuck your spouse if they wanted to, that's the news. Suck on this 1, sit on that 1.

Speaker 1

01:14

And look, Maybe you don't get your weather from local news. Maybe you use an app, like the 1 that came with your phone, or Dark Sky, or Weather Underground, or from places like The Weather Channel or AccuWeather. If you're a New Yorker, you might even get your weather from New York One's Twitter account. And if you don't, you absolutely should, because their actual forecast for the first of this month was, October got off to a warm start today, enjoy the month.

Speaker 1

01:38

It's the last good 1 for NYC until May, the rest are trash. Which is... Excellent. But look, wherever you get your weather from, if you live in the U.S., your forecast would not exist without the National Weather Service.

Speaker 1

01:53

It's a subset of its parent agency, NOAA, and it's an absolutely incredible government service generating essential information. But unfortunately, it may be under serious threat. So tonight, much like 2 colleagues in an elevator, let's talk about the weather. And let's start with the fact the National Weather Service harvests a huge amount of data every day.

Speaker 1

02:14

And all the other private weather services you can possibly think of are dependent on that data to make their own predictions. Here's 1 National Weather Service meteorologist pointing exactly that out.

Speaker 5

02:25

All the forecast, warnings, and data that's available from the National Weather Service is there free of charge to anyone. Even though you don't know our names or see our faces most of the time, those products and services that you see almost every day likely originated from the National Weather Service office.

Speaker 1

02:41

Yeah, and he's absolutely right. Think of it like this. National Weather Service data is to a weather forecast what fresh Wolverine meat is to Hormel chili.

Speaker 1

02:50

You can't make 1 without the other. It's the dominant ingredient there. -♪ ♪ -♪ The National Weather Service also works in tandem with organizations all over the world through the World Meteorological Organization, where countries share essential weather data on a free and unrestricted basis. This actually works out very well for the U.S.

Speaker 1

03:09

We receive 3 times more data back from our partners than we give them, and we've really benefited from that in the past. For instance, in 2012, the U.S. Model initially had Hurricane Sandy heading out to the ocean, while the European model showed it making a sharp left turn and hitting the East Coast, which it did. Of course it did.

Speaker 1

03:28

And because we had that early warning, countless lives were saved. So virtually the entire world participates in a weather observation system that most people have never heard of, and that private companies benefit greatly from. Which is not to say the companies don't add value here, because they definitely do. Among other things, when a local news station subscribes to, say, AccuWeather, it gets their state-of-the-art graphics packages.

Speaker 1

03:52

That's something that's been a big part of their brand since at least the 80s.

Speaker 6

03:56

Whatever you need, AccuWeather has it.

Speaker 1

04:00

♪♪

Speaker 6

04:05

Every day, you can select from thousands of award-winning graphics, satellite and radar images, graphics that are at the cutting edge of design and accuracy. You'll know about the worst weather, like this Nasty Christmas Eve in Bradford, Pennsylvania, or this blizzard in Lone Tree, Wyoming. Trivia questions can help hold your audience with tantalizing facts.

Speaker 6

04:24

When the weather is in the news, you can be on top of it with special graphics like this 1 of Chernobyl.

Speaker 1

04:29

-♪ Chernobyl, Chernobyl, Chernobyl, Chernobyl... ♪ -♪ Chernobyl, Chernobyl, Chernobyl, Chernobyl... ♪ Whoa!

Speaker 1

04:32

Fun Chernobyl graphic, AccuWeather. That looks like a screenshot from the world's saddest Nintendo game, where the levels you progress through are stages 123, and 4 cancer. And to this day, The private sector is on the cutting edge of dressing up weather data. 1 of AccuWeather's main competitors, the Weather Channel, now regularly produces spectacular and pointless graphics to dramatize severe weather.

Speaker 4

04:56

And the semi might break through the ice, then we start to run into trouble. You need that to support the weight of a man.

Speaker 2

05:02

And there can be extensive power outages. Airway. Missile.

Speaker 1

05:07

Oh! Holy shit! Let's all just be thankful that Those graphics that advanced were not around during Chernobyl, but... But companies clearly don't just provide graphics.

Speaker 1

05:22

Some have their own data collection systems and can use them to augment the weather service data and narrowly tailor forecasts for specific clients. For example, they could tell a trucking company what roads will be safest to drive on ahead of winter storms. And just listen to Joel Myers, founder and CEO of AccuWeather, as he provides another particularly vivid example.

Speaker 7

05:43

Eddie Vedder was doing a concert in Chicago. Live Nation uses our service. We gave them a warning.

Speaker 7

05:50

He said, we just heard from Accuweather, we need to clear the field. They did, 20 minutes later, with everybody out of harm's way, a severe lightning storm hit. It struck the stage, actually, right where he had been standing.

Speaker 1

06:02

Wow! He's claiming AccuWeather saved Eddie Vedder's life. I guess that's what Eddie was talking about when he famously said, and I quote... ♪ Boo-ee, boo-ee I'm still alive ♪ ♪

Speaker 3

06:16

Boo-ee, boo-ee I'm still alive

Speaker 1

06:20

♪ Yeah. But Myers, Myers actually makes a pretty good case there for the value of private weather companies. Making sure Eddie Vedder doesn't get struck by lightning is simply not something the National Weather Service has the bandwidth to do.

Speaker 1

06:35

So, the relationship between the public and the private sector is mutually beneficial. In fact, sometimes, the weather service even buys data from private companies. But, there can be tensions. Because the private sector is, by its nature, inclined to try and grab attention.

Speaker 1

06:51

Like when AccuWeather rolled out its groundbreaking 45-day forecast, despite the fact most experts agree any forecast beyond 7 to 10 days is unreliable. And 1 even called it a joke. And it gets worse. For instance, it is the National Weather Service that names tropical storms.

Speaker 1

07:08

And they name them to signal that they are important. If a storm gets a name, like Sandy or Irene, then you know you've got to pay attention. Now, they don't name winter storms because winter storms ebb and flow much more. So naming them could inflate their importance or eventually cheapen naming storms altogether.

Speaker 1

07:26

Which is why it bugged the shit out of the weather service when the Weather Channel suddenly started doing this.

Speaker 7

07:32

This season, the Weather Channel is naming major winter storms.

Speaker 2

07:36

The list includes names like Athena, Draco, and Magnus.

Speaker 1

07:41

Right. And yes, look, those names fucking rule. Obviously. I'm not disputing that.

Speaker 1

07:47

But the point is, naming them was a bad idea, especially if, as they did, you call 1 Janus without, say, considering what would happen if a forecaster stood in front of 1 of those letters. Because you've got a problem on your hands, don't you? Hey, hey, honey! The news is saying anus is getting bigger and it's gonna be dumping all over us for the next 3 days!

Speaker 1

08:07

-♪ Ooh, ooh, ooh... ♪ -♪ Ooh, ooh, ooh... ♪ But a... But a bigger source of friction has been the private sector's sense that they might be better off if the National Weather Service did slightly less.

Speaker 1

08:19

1 notable skirmish came 15 years ago, after the National Weather Service made its website more user-friendly. And Joel Meyer's brother, Barry Meyers, who was then the company's EVP, expressed his serious frustration.

Speaker 4

08:32

The National Weather Service recently decided to more aggressively share

Speaker 8

08:36

its data directly with taxpayers. But not everyone is in favor of its more accessible website.

Speaker 9

08:42

We work very hard every day competing with, other companies, and we also have to compete with the government.

Speaker 1

08:50

Well, hold on. Do you, though? Do you have to compete?

Speaker 1

08:54

Or is the government what makes your industry possible in the first place? Because without their data, every AccuWeather forecast would just be, -"Fuck if I know." -$50. In fact, that same year, AccuWeather supported a bill in Congress that could have prevented the weather service from doing anything a private company does, like providing daily forecasts or putting content on its website. Now, the bill failed, which is good, because what you do not want is a paywall system of weather where only paying customers can find out if they're about to drive into a tornado.

Speaker 1

09:26

And I'm not even making up that worst-case scenario. It's basically AccuWeather's sales pitch. During that same interview where Joel Myers claimed that he'd saved Eddie Vedder's life, he shared an anecdote about a client, a railroad company, that pays AccuWeather to give it reports about anything affecting its trains. Now, this is subtle, but see if you can pick up on a problem here.

Speaker 7

09:48

Union Pacific, we told them that a tornado was heading to a spot, 2 trains stopped 2 miles apart, they watched the tornado go between... Between them, unfortunately, it went into a town that didn't have our service, and a couple dozen people were killed, but the railroads did not lose anything.

Speaker 1

10:05

What the fuck did you just say? That is a weird focus on the safety of a railroad over human life. That's a man who read Anna Karenina and came away thinking it's a story about a woman who mildly inconvenienced a train.

Speaker 1

10:22

Now, while people did die in that tornado, it was actually an example of the warning system working well. Because while, yes, AccuWeather did inform their client, Union Pacific, The National Weather Service also warned the town just a few minutes later, giving residents their time to seek shelter. But what Myers is doing there is marketing AccuWeather as indispensable for public safety, which, Thanks to the current strength of the National Weather Service, it isn't. Freely shared information has tremendous, potentially life-saving value.

Speaker 1

10:53

Although, at times, his brother Barry has argued otherwise. Remember how our partners in Europe were able to help us prepare for Hurricane Sandy? Just listen to how he described that.

Speaker 9

11:02

A special focus during Superstorm Sandy was the ECMWF, so-called European model, which did a better job at some points in the storm track than U.S. Models did. Relying on other countries for better weather models places America in a weak and subservient position.

Speaker 1

11:20

Wait. Cooperation makes America weak and subservient? That is a viewpoint that would make for a tantalizing bit of AccuWeather trivia. Who lost World War II?

Speaker 1

11:30

Britain for accepting help. -♪ ♪ -♪ ♪ So, it is just crucial that whoever runs the National Weather Service is someone who A, sees the obvious benefit of international cooperation, and B, can stand up to the potential pressures of the private sector, and particularly, Joel and Barry Myers. And at this point, you can probably guess what's coming.

Speaker 4

11:52

President Trump nominating the AccuWeather CEO, he's Barry Myers, and President Trump wants him to be the Undersecretary of the National Weather Service. It's an interesting nomination.

Speaker 1

12:01

Yes, it is. In fact, you could even say it's incredibly predictable because everything Trump does is designed to destroy government from the inside. Pfft, pfft, pfft.

Speaker 1

12:13

The National Weather Service is a terrible government agency to put in the hands of a businessman. And while Myers has stepped down from AccuWeather and divested his stake in the company, it is still very much a family business, with his son-in-law and wife being employed there in recent years, and his 2 brothers still serving as CEO and COO of the company. And yet, during his confirmation hearing, Myers insisted that wouldn't be a problem.

Speaker 9

12:39

I've made it clear to my brothers, in fact, jokingly, I explained to them that we may see each other at Thanksgiving dinner, and we can talk about football and family things, but we cannot talk about Noah.

Speaker 1

12:53

Really? Really? You won't talk about the thing that could vastly enrich the family business at Thanksgiving? Well, conveniently, Thanksgiving is now exactly 45 days away.

Speaker 1

13:02

So allow me to make a 45-day forecast. Bullshit! And it is worth asking here, why, aside from the obvious, would Barry Myers want this job? If you're thinking, well, maybe he's just a weather nerd who's always wanted to be at the source of all the information.

Speaker 1

13:21

He's not that. A few years ago, he told the Wall Street Journal, I'm not a meteorologist, and that as a young man, I knew meteorology was not what I wanted to do. It's also not like he's hoping to parlay this job into a future lobbying gig on K Street. He's a 76-year-old multi-millionaire.

Speaker 1

13:37

So, he has no passion for the subject matter, and his family company is, as he himself has argued, a direct competitor to the agency he's been tapped to run. And if that weren't disqualifying enough, there is 1 more concern hanging over his nomination.

Speaker 10

13:52

The Labor Department investigation into AccuWeather found multiple sexual harassment claims were ignored by executives. It says women who complained feared retaliation.

Speaker 1

14:02

Right. The investigation said the company had a severe and pervasive harassment problem. And while the company denies the allegations, they also chose not to fight them. And the crazy thing here is, Myers has been Trump's nominee for 2 years now, but he hasn't been in the job because the Senate has been sitting on his confirmation.

Speaker 1

14:20

Trump's already had to resubmit his nomination twice, and if Myers isn't confirmed by the end of this year, he'll have to do it again. Which... Why? Why not find another guy?

Speaker 1

14:34

-...any other guy? -...any other guy! Other than, of course, the fact that for that to happen, Trump would have to do stuff, know stuff, and think workplace harassment is a bad thing. And none of us should be holding our breath on that.

Speaker 1

14:46

Besides, it has been easy for Trump to stick by Myers because hardly anyone has been paying attention to this issue, which is understandable, but we really should be. And I might actually know a way to help here, because what better way to illustrate an abstract threat than by learning from the company that since the 80s has perfected turning dry information into state-of-the-art entertainment. So please, if you will, come with me. -♪ ♪ -♪ Hi there.

Speaker 1

15:12

I would like to issue a very important warning for the D.C. Area. According to our patented thousand-day forecast model, Superstorm Barry is going to cause significant harm to the National Weather Service. As you can see, it originated over here at AccuWeather headquarters, and it's been gravitating towards NOAA for nearly 2 years now.

Speaker 1

15:31

If it makes landfall, our model suggests there could be significant damage. I'm talking mass reindeer suicide sliding sand to offer roof damage. That's a lot. Because we do not want the whole country to be like Eddie Vedder, in a position where, unless we pay AccuWeather, the next thing

Speaker 3

15:49

you know, bang! -♪ We're not alike, baby! ♪ -♪ We're not alike, baby!

Speaker 1

15:56

♪ -♪

Speaker 3

15:57

We're not alike, baby!

Speaker 1

16:00

-♪

Speaker 3

16:01

We're not alike, baby!

Speaker 1

16:03

What I'm saying is, Superstorm Barry hitting the National Weather Service could cause a massive data freeze while, unfortunately, over at AccuWeather, there's gonna be around a 95% chance of him Making it rain.