1 hours 21 minutes 55 seconds
🇬🇧 English
Speaker 1
00:00
The following is a conversation with Eric Weinstein. He's a mathematician, economist, physicist, and the managing director of Thiel Capital. He coined the term, and you could say, is the founder of the intellectual dark web, which is a loosely assembled group of public intellectuals that includes Sam Harris, Jordan Peterson, Steven Pinker, Joe Rogan, Michael Shermer, and a few others. This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence Podcast at MIT and beyond.
Speaker 1
00:30
If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, or simply connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman, spelled F-R-I-D. And now, here's my conversation with Eric Weinstein. Are you nervous about this? Scared shitless.
Speaker 1
00:47
Okay, you best be crazy.
Speaker 2
00:50
You mentioned Kung Fu Panda as 1 of your favorite movies. It has the usual profound master-student dynamic going on. So who has been a teacher that significantly influenced the direction of your thinking and life's work.
Speaker 2
01:04
So if you're the Kung Fu Panda, who was your Shifu?
Speaker 3
01:08
Oh, that's interesting because I didn't see Shifu as being the teacher. Who was
Speaker 2
01:12
the teacher? Ugui, Master Ugui, The turtle. Oh, the turtle, right.
Speaker 3
01:18
They only meet twice in the entire film. And the first conversation sort of doesn't count. So the magic of the film, in fact, its point is that the teaching that really matters is transferred during a single conversation.
Speaker 3
01:38
And it's very brief. And so who played that role in my life? I would say either my grandfather, Harry Rubin and his wife, Sophie Rubin, my grandmother, or Tom Lehrer. Tom Lehrer?
Speaker 3
01:55
Yeah. In which way? If you give a child Tom Lehrer records, what you do is you destroy their ability to be taken over by later malware. And it's so irreverent, so witty, so clever, so obscene that it destroys the ability to lead a normal life for many people.
Speaker 3
02:19
So if I meet somebody who's usually really shifted from any kind of neurotypical presentation, I'll often ask them, are you a Tom Lehrer fan? And the odds that they will respond are quite high.
Speaker 2
02:34
Now Tom Lehrer's Poisoning Pigeons in the Park, Tom Lehrer?
Speaker 3
02:38
That's very interesting. There are a small number of Tom Lehrer songs that broke into the general population. Poisoning Pigeons in the Park, the Element song, and perhaps the Vatican rag.
Speaker 3
02:49
So when you meet somebody who knows those songs, but doesn't know.
Speaker 2
02:52
Oh, you're judging me right now, aren't you?
Speaker 3
02:54
Harshly. No, but you're a Russian. So undoubtedly you know Nikolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky, that song.
Speaker 1
03:00
Yes, yeah.
Speaker 3
03:01
So that was a song about plagiarism that was in fact plagiarized, which most people don't know from Danny Kaye, where Danny Kaye did a song called Stanislavski of the Muskie Arts. And so Tom Lehrer did this brilliant job of plagiarizing a song about, and making it about plagiarism, and then making it about this mathematician who worked in non-Euclidean geometry. That was like giving heroin to a child.
Speaker 3
03:27
It was extremely addictive, and eventually led me to a lot of different places, 1 of which may have been a PhD in mathematics.
Speaker 2
03:36
And he was also at least a lecturer in mathematics, I believe, at Harvard, something like that.
Speaker 3
03:42
I just had dinner with him, in fact. When my son turned 13, we didn't tell him, but his bar mitzvah present was dinner with his hero, Tom Lehrer. And Tom Lehrer was 88 years old, sharp as a tack, irreverent and funny as hell.
Speaker 3
04:00
And just, you know, there are very few people in this world that you have to meet while they're still here and that was definitely 1 for our family. So that wit is a
Speaker 2
04:11
reflection of intelligence in some kind of deep way, like where that would be a good test of intelligence whether you're a Tom Lehrer fan. So what do you think that is about wit, about that kind of humor, ability to see the absurdity in existence, do you think that's connected to intelligence or are we just 2 Jews on a mic that appreciate that kind of humor?
Speaker 3
04:34
No, I think that it's absolutely connected to intelligence. You can see it, there's a place where Tom Lehrer decides that he's going to lampoon Gilbert of Gilbert and Sullivan and he's going to outdo Gilbert with clever meaningless wordplay. And he has, forget the, well let's see.
Speaker 3
04:53
He's doing Clementine as if Gilbert and Sullivan wrote it. And he says, that I mister depressed her young sister named mister, this mister to pester she tried. Pestering sisters of festering blister, you best to resist her, say I. The sister persisted, the mister resisted, I kissed her all loyalty slip.
Speaker 3
05:06
When she said I could have her, her sister's cadaver must surely have turned in its crypt. That's so dense, it's so insane, that that's clearly intelligence because it's hard to construct something like that. If I look at my favorite Tom Lyric, Tom Lyric lyric, you know, there's a perfectly absurd 1, which is once all the Germans were warlike and mean, but that couldn't happen again. We taught them a lesson in 1918 and they've hardly bothered us since then.
Speaker 3
05:34
That is a different kind of intelligence. You're taking something that is so horrific and you're sort of making it palatable and funny and demonstrating also just your humanity. I mean, I think the thing that came through as Tom Lehrer wrote all of these terrible, horrible lines was just what a sensitive and beautiful soul he was who was channeling pain through humor and through grace.
Speaker 2
06:02
I've seen throughout Europe, throughout Russia, that same kind of humor emerged from the generation of World War II. It seemed like that humor is required to somehow deal with the pain and the suffering of that that war created.
Speaker 3
06:15
Well, you do need the environment to create the broad Slavic soul. I don't think that many Americans really appreciate Russian humor, how you had to joke during the time of, let's say, Article 58 under Stalin. You had to be very, very careful.
Speaker 3
06:35
You know, the concept of a Russian satirical magazine like Krokodil doesn't make sense. So you have this cross-cultural problem that There are certain areas of human experience that it would be better to know nothing about. And quite unfortunately, Eastern Europe knows a great deal about them, which makes the songs of Vladimir Vesotsky so potent, the prose of Pushkin, whatever it is, you have to appreciate the depth of the Eastern European experience. And I would think that perhaps Americans knew something like this around the time of the Civil War or maybe under slavery and Jim Crow, or even the harsh tyranny of the coal and steel employers during the labor wars.
Speaker 3
07:29
But in general, I would say it's hard for us to understand and imagine the collective culture Unless we have the system of selective pressures that for example Russians were subjected to Yes, if there is 1 good thing that comes out of war its literature art
Speaker 2
07:48
and Humor and music. Oh, I don't think so.
Speaker 3
07:52
I think almost everything is good about war except for death and destruction.
Speaker 2
07:57
Right. Without the death, it would bring the romance of it. The whole thing is nice.
Speaker 3
08:03
Well, this is why we're always caught up in war. We have this very ambiguous relationship to it is that it makes life real and pressing and meaningful and at an unacceptable price and the price has never been higher. So just jump
Speaker 2
08:20
into AI a little bit. In 1 of the conversation you had, or 1 of the videos, you described that 1 of the things AI systems can't do, and biological systems can, is self-replicate in the physical world.
Speaker 1
08:34
Oh no, no. In the
Speaker 2
08:37
physical world. Well, yes, the physical robots can't self-replicate.
Speaker 3
08:44
This is a very tricky point, which is that the only thing that we've been able to create that's really complex, that has an analog of our reproductive system, is software.
Speaker 2
08:57
But nevertheless, software replicates itself, if we're speaking strictly for the replication, in this kind of digital space. So let me, just to begin, let me ask a question. Do you see a protective barrier or a gap between the physical world and the digital world?
Speaker 3
09:15
Let's not call it digital. Let's call it the logical world versus the physical world. Why logical?
Speaker 3
09:21
Well, because even though we had, let's say Einstein's brain preserved, it was meaningless to us as a physical object because we couldn't do anything with what was stored in it at a logical level. And so the idea that something may be stored logically and that it may be stored physically are not necessarily, we don't always benefit from synonymizing. I'm not suggesting that there isn't a material basis to the logical world, but that it does warrant identification with a separate layer that need not invoke logic gates and zeros and ones.
Speaker 2
09:59
And So connecting those 2 worlds, the logical world and the physical world, or maybe just connecting to the logical world inside our brain, Einstein's brain. You mentioned the idea of out, outtelligence. Artificial outtelligence.
Speaker 2
10:15
Artificial outtelligence.
Speaker 3
10:16
Yes, this is the only essay that John Brockman ever invited me to write that he refused to publish in Edge. Why? Well, maybe it wasn't well written, but I don't know.
Speaker 2
10:31
The idea is quite compelling. It's quite unique and new, and at least from my view, stance point, maybe you can explain it. Sure.
Speaker 3
10:39
What I was thinking about is why it is that we're waiting to be terrified by artificial general intelligence, when in fact artificial life is terrifying in and of itself and it's already here. So in order to have a system of selective pressures, you need 3 distinct elements. You need variation within a population, you need heritability, and you need differential success.
Speaker 3
11:08
So what's really unique, and I've made this point I think elsewhere, about software is that if you think about what humans know how to build, that's impressive. So I always take a car and I say, does it have an analog of each of the physical physiological systems? Does it have a skeletal structure? That's its frame.
Speaker 3
11:27
Does it have a neurological structure? It has an onboard computer, has a digestive system. The 1 thing it doesn't have is a reproductive system. But if you can call spawn on a process, effectively you do have a reproductive system.
Speaker 3
11:46
And that means that you can create something with variation, heritability, and differential success. Now, the next step in the chain of thinking was, where do we see inanimate, non-intelligent life outwitting intelligent life? And I have 2 favorite systems, and I try to stay on them so that we don't get distracted. 1 of which is the ophrys orchid subspecies, or subclade, I don't know what to call it.
Speaker 2
12:18
It's a type of flower?
Speaker 3
12:19
Yeah, it's a type of flower that mimics the female of a pollinator species in order to dupe the males into engaging, it was called pseudocopulation with the fake female, which is usually represented by the lowest petal. And there's also a pheromone component to fool the males into thinking they have a mating opportunity. But the flower doesn't have to give up energy in the form of nectar as a lure because it's tricking the males.
Speaker 3
12:45
The other system is a particular species of mussel, Lampicillus in the clear streams of Missouri. And it fools bass into biting a fleshy lip that contain its young. And when the bass see this fleshy lip, which looks exactly like a species of fish that the bass like to eat, the young explode and clamp onto the gills and parasitize the bass and also lose the bass to redistribute them as they eventually release. Both of these systems, you have a highly intelligent dupe being fooled by a lower life form.
Speaker 3
13:30
And what is sculpting these, these convincing lures? It's the intelligence of previously duped targets for these strategies. So when the target is smart enough to avoid the strategy, those weaker mimics fall off. They have terminal lines and only the better ones survive.
Speaker 3
13:52
So it's an arms race between the target species that is being parasitized getting smarter and this other less intelligent or non-intelligent object getting as if smarter. And so what you see is that artificial general intelligence is not needed to parasitize us. It's simply sufficient for us to outwit ourselves. So you could have a program, let's say, you know, 1 of these Nigerian scams, that writes letters and uses whoever sends it Bitcoin to figure out which aspects of the program should be kept, which should be varied and thrown away.
Speaker 3
14:38
And you don't need it to be in any way intelligent in order to have a really nightmarish scenario of being parasitized by something that has no idea what it's doing.
Speaker 2
14:46
So you phrased a few concepts really eloquently, so let me try to, as a few directions this goes. So 1, first of all, in the way we write software today, it's not common that we allow it to self-modify. But
Speaker 3
15:01
we do have that ability now.
Speaker 2
15:02
We have the ability. It's just not common. It's not just common.
Speaker 2
15:06
So your thought is that that is a serious worry if there becomes a reason. But self-modifying code is available now. So there's different types of self-modification, right? There's a personalization, you know, your email app, your Gmail is a self-modifying to you after you log in or whatever.
Speaker 2
15:31
You can think of it that way, but ultimately it's central, all the information is centralized, but you're thinking of ideas where you're completely, this is a unique entity operating under selective pressures and it changes.
Speaker 3
15:46
Well, you just, if you think about the fact that our immune systems don't know what's coming at them next, but they have a small set of spanning components. And if it's a sufficiently expressive system in that any shape or binding region can be approximated with the Lego that is present, then you can have confidence that you don't need to know what's coming at you because the combinatorics are sufficient to reach any configuration needed.
Speaker 2
16:23
So that's a beautiful, well, terrifying thing to worry about because it's so within our reach.
Speaker 3
16:30
Whatever I suggest these things, I do always have a concern as to whether or not I will bring them into being by talking about them.
Speaker 2
16:36
So there's this thing from OpenAI, so next week, I have to talk to the founder of OpenAI. This idea that their text generation, the new stuff they have for generating text is they didn't want to release it because they're worried about the... I'm delighted
Speaker 3
16:58
to hear that, but they're going to end up releasing it.
Speaker 2
17:00
Yes, so that's the thing. I think talking about it, well at least from my end, I'm more a proponent of technology preventing, so further innovation preventing the detrimental effects of innovation.
Speaker 3
17:16
Well, we're sort of tumbling down a hill at accelerating speed. So whether or not we're proponents or,
Speaker 2
17:24
it doesn't really matter. It may not matter.
Speaker 1
17:27
But I,
Speaker 3
17:28
well, I do feel that there are people who've held things back and, you know, died poorer than they might have otherwise been. We don't even know their names. I don't think that we should discount the idea that having the smartest people showing off how smart they are by what they've developed may be a terminal process.
Speaker 3
17:50
I'm very mindful in particular of a beautiful letter that Edward Teller of all people wrote to Leo Zillard where Zillard was trying to figure out how to control the use of atomic weaponry at the end of World War II. And Teller, rather strangely, because many of us view him as a monster, showed some very advanced moral thinking talking about the slim chance we have for survival and that the only hope is to make war unthinkable. I do think that not enough of us feel in our gut what it is we are playing with when we are working on technical problems. And I would recommend to anyone who hasn't seen it, a movie called the Bridge on the River Kwai, about, I believe, captured British POWs who, just in a desire to do a bridge well, end up over collaborating with their Japanese captors.
Speaker 2
18:43
Well, now you're making me question the unrestricted open discussion of ideas in AI. But I'm
Speaker 3
18:51
not saying I know the answer. I'm just saying that I could make a decent case for either our need to talk about this and to become technologically focused on containing it, or need to stop talking about this and try to hope that the relatively small number of highly adept individuals who
Speaker 2
19:08
are looking at these problems is small enough that we should in fact be talking about how to contain them. Well, the way ideas, the way innovation happens, what new ideas develop, Newton with calculus, whether if he was silent, the idea would emerge elsewhere, well in the case of Newton, of course, but in the case of AI, how small is the set of individuals out of which such ideas would arise? Is it?
Speaker 3
19:37
Is it a question? Well, the idea is that the researchers we know and those that we don't know, who may live in countries that don't wish us to know what level they're currently at, are very disciplined in keeping these things to themselves. Of course, I will point out that there's a religious school in Kerala that developed something very close to the calculus, certainly in terms of infinite series in, I guess, religious prayer and rhyme and prose.
Speaker 3
20:10
So, you know, it's not that Newton had any ability to hold that back, and I don't really believe that we have an ability to hold it back. I do think that we could change the proportion of the time we spend worrying about the effects of what if we are successful rather than simply trying to succeed and hope
Speaker 2
20:25
that we'll be able to contain things later. Beautiful point. So on the idea of intelligence, what form, treading cautiously as we've agreed as we've tumbled down the hill, what form?
Speaker 2
20:37
We can't stop ourselves, can we? We cannot. What form do you see it taking? So 1 example, Facebook, Google, do want to, I don't know a better word, you want to influence users to behave a certain way.
Speaker 2
20:56
And so that's 1 kind of example of how intelligence is systems perhaps modifying the behavior of these intelligent human beings in order to sell more product of different kind. But do you see other examples of this actually emerging in? Just take any parasitic system. Make sure that there's some way in which that there's differential success, heritability,
Speaker 3
21:24
and variation, and those are the magic ingredients. And if you really wanted to build a nightmare machine, make sure that the system that expresses the variability has a spanning set so that it can learn to arbitrary levels by making it sufficiently expressive. That's your nightmare.
Speaker 2
21:43
So it's your nightmare, but it could also be, it's a really powerful mechanism by which to create, well, powerful systems. So are you more worried about the negative direction that might go versus the positive? So you said parasitic, but that doesn't necessarily need to be what the system converges towards.
Speaker 2
22:04
It could be, what is it, symbiotic?
Speaker 3
22:07
Parasitism, the dividing line between parasitism and symbiosis is not so clear.
Speaker 2
22:13
That's what they tell me about marriage. I'm still single, so I don't know.
Speaker 3
22:17
Well, yeah, we could go into that too, but.
Speaker 2
22:23
No, I
Speaker 3
22:24
think we have to appreciate, you know, are you infected by your own mitochondria? Right. Right?
Speaker 3
22:35
Yeah. So, you know, in marriage, you fear the loss of independence, but even though the American therapeutic community may be very concerned about codependence, What's to say that codependence isn't what's necessary to have a stable relationship in which to raise children who are maximally case-selected and require incredible amounts of care because you have to wait 13 years before there's any reproductive payout and most of us don't want our 13-year-olds having kids. It's a very tricky situation to analyze. I would say that predators and parasites drive much of our evolution, and I don't know whether to be angry at them or thank them.
Speaker 2
23:13
Well ultimately, I mean, nobody knows the meaning of life or what even happiness is, but there is some metrics. I didn't tell you. They didn't, that's why all the poetry and books are about.
Speaker 2
23:27
You know, there is some metrics under which you can kind of measure how good it is that these AI systems are roaming about. So you're more nervous about software than you are optimistic about ideas of, yeah, self-replicating large scale.
Speaker 3
23:45
I don't think we've really felt where we are. You know, occasionally we get a wake up. 9-11 was so anomalous compared to everything else we've experienced on American soil that it came to us as a complete shock that that was even a possibility.
Speaker 3
24:04
What it really was was a highly creative and determined R&D team deep in the bowels of Afghanistan showing us that we had certain exploits that we were open to that nobody had chosen to express. I can think of several of these things that I don't talk about publicly that just seem to have to do with how relatively unimaginative those who wish to cause havoc and destruction have been up until now. But the great mystery of our time, of this particular little era, is how remarkably stable we've been since 1945 when we demonstrated the ability to use nuclear weapons in anger. And we don't know why things like that haven't happened since then.
Speaker 3
24:58
We've had several close call, We've had mistakes, we've had brinksmanship. And what's now happened is that we've settled into a sense that, oh, it'll always be nothing. It's been so long since something was at that level of danger that we've got a wrong idea in our head. And that's why when I went on the Ben Shapiro show, I talked about the need to resume above ground testing of nuclear devices, because we have people whose developmental experience suggests that when, let's say Donald Trump and North Korea engage on Twitter, oh it's nothing, it's just posturing.
Speaker 3
25:39
Everybody's just in it for money. There's a sense that people are in a video game mode which has been the right call since 1945. We've been mostly in video game mode. It's amazing.
Speaker 2
25:52
So you're worried about a generation which has not seen any existential.
Speaker 3
25:56
We've lived under it. You see, you're younger. I don't know if, and again, you came from Moscow.
Speaker 3
26:05
There was a TV show called The Day After that had a huge effect on a generation growing up in the US. And it talked about what life would be like after a nuclear exchange. We have not gone through an embodied experience collectively where we've thought about this, and I think it's 1 of the most irresponsible things that the elders among us have done, which is to provide this beautiful garden in which the thorns are cut off of the rose bushes and all of the edges are rounded and sanded. And so people have developed this totally unreal idea which is everything's going to be just fine.
Speaker 3
26:53
And do I think that my leading concern is AGI or my leading concern is thermonuclear exchange or gene drives or any 1 of these things, I don't know. But I know that our time here in this very long experiment here is finite because the toys that we've built are so impressive. And the wisdom to accompany them has not materialized. And I think we actually got a wisdom uptick since 1945.
Speaker 3
27:25
We had a lot of dangerous, skilled players on the world stage who nevertheless, no matter how bad they were, managed to not embroil us in something that we couldn't come back from. The Cold War. Yeah, and the distance from the Cold War. You know, I'm very mindful of, there was a Russian tradition, actually, of on your wedding day, going to visit a memorial to those who gave their lives.
Speaker 3
27:56
Can you imagine this? Where on the happiest day of your life, you go and you pay homage to the people who fought and died in the Battle of Stalingrad. I'm not a huge fan of communism, I gotta say, but there were a couple of things that the Russians did that were really positive in the Soviet era. And I think trying to let people know how serious life actually is, the Russian model of seriousness is better than the American model.
Speaker 3
28:28
And maybe, like you mentioned,
Speaker 2
28:30
there was a small echo of that after 9-11. But- We wouldn't let it form.
Speaker 3
28:36
We talk about 9-11, but it's 9-12 that really moved the needle. When we were all just there and nobody wanted to speak. We witnessed something super serious and we didn't want to run to our computers and blast out our deep thoughts and our feelings.
Speaker 3
28:59
And it was profound because we woke up briefly there. I talk about the gated institutional narrative that sort of programs our lives. I've seen it break 3 times in my life. 1 of which was the election of Donald Trump.
Speaker 3
29:15
Another time was the fall of Lehman Brothers when everybody who knew that Bear Stearns wasn't that important knew that Lehman Brothers met AIG was next. And the other 1 was 9-11. And so If I'm 53 years old and I only remember 3 times that the global narrative was really interrupted, that tells you how much we've been on top of developing events. I mean, we had the Murrow Federal Building explosion, but it didn't cause the narrative to break.
Speaker 3
29:47
It wasn't profound enough. Around 9-12, we started to wake up out of our slumber. And the
Speaker 2
29:56
powers that be did not want to coming together. They, you know, the admonition was go shopping. The powers that be was what is that force as opposed to blaming individuals?
Speaker 2
30:07
We don't know. So whatever that. Whatever that force is, there's a component
Speaker 3
30:12
of it that's emergent and there's a component of it that's deliberate. So give yourself a portfolio with 2 components. Some amount of it is emergent, but some amount of it is also an understanding that if people come together, they become an incredible force.
Speaker 3
30:27
And what you're seeing right now, I think, is there are forces that are trying to come together, and There are forces that are trying to come together and there are forces that are trying to push things apart. And 1 of them is the globalist narrative versus the national narrative, where to the globalist perspective, the nations are bad things in essence, that they're temporary, they're nationalistic, they're jingoistic, it's all negative. To people in the national, more in the national idiom, they're saying, look, this is where I pay my taxes, This is where I do my army service. This is where I have a vote.
Speaker 3
31:04
This is where I have a passport. Who the hell are you to tell me that because you've moved into some place that you can make money globally, that you've chosen to abandon other people to whom you have a special and elevated duty? And I think that these competing narratives have been pushing towards the global perspective from the elite and a larger and larger number of disenfranchised people are saying, hey, I actually live in a place and I have laws and
Speaker 2
31:31
I speak a language, I have a culture, and who are you to tell me that because you can profit in some faraway land that my obligations to my fellow countrymen are so much diminished? So these tensions between nations and so on, Ultimately you see being proud of your country and so on, which creates potentially the kind of things that led to wars and so on. They ultimately, it is human nature and it is good for us for wake up calls of different kinds.
Speaker 2
31:58
Well, I
Speaker 3
31:59
think that these are tensions. And my point isn't, I mean, nationalism run amok is a nightmare. And internationalism run amok is a nightmare.
Speaker 3
32:09
And the problem is we're trying to push these pendulums to some place where they're somewhat balanced, where we have a higher duty of care to those who share our laws and our citizenship, but we don't forget our duties of care to the global system. I would think this is elementary, but the problem that we're facing concerns the ability for some to profit by abandoning their obligations to others within their system. And that's what we've had for decades. You mentioned nuclear weapons.
Speaker 3
32:49
I was hoping to
Speaker 2
32:50
get answers from you since 1 of the many things you've done as economics, and maybe you can understand human behavior of why the heck we haven't blown each other up yet. But okay, so we'll get back. I don't know the answer.
Speaker 2
33:05
Yeah, it's really important to say that we really don't know.
Speaker 3
33:07
A mild uptick in wisdom.
Speaker 2
33:09
A mild uptick in wisdom, well, Steven Pinker, who I've talked with, has a lot of really good ideas about why, but nobody really.
Speaker 3
33:17
I don't trust his optimism.
Speaker 2
33:21
Listen, I'm Russian, so I never trust a guy who's that optimistic either. No, no, no,
Speaker 3
33:25
it's just that you're talking about a guy who's looking at a system in which more and more of the kinetic energy, like war, has been turned into potential energy, like unused nuclear weapons. And now I'm looking at that system and I'm saying, okay, well if you don't have a potential energy term, then everything's just getting better and better.
Speaker 2
33:45
Yeah, wow, that's beautifully put. Only a physicist could, okay. Not a physicist.
Speaker 2
33:53
Is that a dirty word? No, no, I wish I were a physicist. Me too, my dad's a physicist. I'm trying to live up to that probably for the rest of my life.
Speaker 2
34:02
He's probably gonna listen to this too. So. He did. So your friend Sam Harris worries a lot about the existential threat of AI.
Speaker 2
34:13
Not in the way that you've described, but in the more.
Speaker 3
34:16
Well he hangs out with Elon, I don't know Elon.
Speaker 2
34:20
So are you worried about that kind of, you know, about the, about either robotic systems or traditionally defined AI systems essentially becoming super intelligent, much more intelligent than human beings and getting great results.
Speaker 3
34:38
Well they already are
Speaker 2
34:40
and they're not. When seen as a collective you mean?
Speaker 3
34:45
Well I mean I can mean all sorts of things, but certainly many of the things that we thought were peculiar to general intelligence do not require general intelligence. So that's been 1 of the big awakenings that you can write a pretty convincing sports story from stats alone without needing to have watched the game. So is it possible to write lively prose about politics?
Speaker 3
35:14
Yeah, no, not yet. So we're sort of all over the map. 1 of the things about chess, there's a question I once asked on Quora that didn't get a lot of response, which was what is the greatest brilliancy ever produced by a computer in a chess game, which was different than the question of what is the greatest game ever played. So if you think about brilliancies is what really animates many of us to think of chess as an art form.
Speaker 3
35:41
Those are those moves and combinations that just show such flair, panache, and soul. Computers weren't really great at that. They were great positional monsters. And recently we've started seeing brilliancies.
Speaker 2
35:56
And so. A few grandmasters have identified with AlphaZero that things were quite brilliant.
Speaker 3
36:02
Yeah, so that's an example of something. We don't think that that's AGI, but in a very restricted set of rules like chess, you're starting to see poetry of a high order. And so I don't like the idea that we're waiting for AGI.
Speaker 3
36:21
AGI is sort of slowly infiltrating our lives in the same way that I don't think a worm should be, you know, the C. Elegans shouldn't be treated as non-conscious because it only has 300 neurons. Maybe it just has a very low level of consciousness because we don't understand what these things mean as they scale up. So am I worried about this general phenomena?
Speaker 3
36:43
Sure, but I think that 1 of the things that's happening is that a lot of us are fretting about this in part because of human needs. We've always been worried about the Golem, right?
Speaker 2
36:57
Well, the Golem is the artificially created. Life, you know. It's like Frankenstein type.
Speaker 2
37:01
Yeah, sure. Character.
Speaker 3
37:02
It's a Jewish version. Frankenberg, Frankenstein.
Speaker 2
37:08
Yeah, that makes sense. That's right, so the,
Speaker 3
37:12
but we've always been worried about creating something like this. And it's getting closer and closer. And there are ways in which we have to realize that the whole thing is, the whole thing that we've experienced or the context of our lives is almost certainly coming to an end.
Speaker 3
37:32
And I don't mean to suggest that we won't survive, I don't know. And I don't mean to suggest that it's coming tomorrow, could be 300, 500 years. But there's no plan that I'm aware of if we have 3 rocks that we could possibly inhabit that are sensible within current technological dreams, the earth, the moon and Mars, and we have a very competitive civilization that is still forced into violence to sort out disputes that cannot be arbitrated. It is not clear to me that we have a long-term future until we get to the next stage, which is to figure out whether or not the Einsteinian speed limit can be broken.
Speaker 3
38:17
And that requires our source code.
Speaker 2
38:21
Our source code, the stuff in our brains to figure out, what do you mean by our source code?
Speaker 3
38:26
The source code of the context, whatever it is that produces the quarks, the electrons, the neutrinos.
Speaker 2
38:32
Our source code, I got it. So this is. You're talking about stuff that's written in a higher level language.
Speaker 2
38:38
Yeah, yeah, that's right. You're talking about the low level bits. That's what is currently keeping us
Speaker 3
38:45
here. We can't even imagine. You know, we have harebrained schemes for staying within the Einsteinian speed limit. You know, maybe if we could just drug ourselves and go into a suspended state or we could have multiple generations.
Speaker 3
39:00
I think all that stuff is pretty silly. But I think it's also pretty silly to imagine that our wisdom is going to increase to the point that we can have the toys we have and we're not going to use them for 500 years.
Speaker 1
39:13
Speaking of Einstein, I had
Speaker 2
39:16
a profound breakthrough when I realized you're just 1 letter away from the guy. Yeah, but
Speaker 3
39:20
I'm also 1 letter away from Feinstein.
Speaker 2
39:23
It's, well, you get to pick. Okay, so unified theory. You know, you've worked, you enjoy the beauty of geometry.
Speaker 2
39:32
Well, I don't actually know if you enjoy it. You certainly are quite good at it.
Speaker 3
39:35
I tremble before it.
Speaker 2
39:36
Tremble before it. If you're religious, that is 1 of the. I don't have
Speaker 3
39:41
to be religious. It's just so beautiful, you will tremble anyway.
Speaker 2
39:44
I mean, I just read Einstein's biography and 1 of the ways, 1 of the things you've done is try to explore a unified theory talking about a 14 dimensional observers that has the 4D space time continuum embedded in it. I'm just curious how you think, philosophically at a high level, about something more than 4 dimensions. How do you try to, what does it make you feel Talking in the mathematical world about dimensions that are greater than the ones we can perceive, is there something that you take away that's more than just the math?
Speaker 3
40:26
Well, first of all, stick out your tongue at me. Okay, now, on the front of that tongue, there was a sweet receptor. And next to that were salt receptors on 2 different sides.
Speaker 3
40:44
A little bit farther back there were sour receptors. And you wouldn't show me the back of your tongue where your bitter receptor was.
Speaker 2
40:50
Show the good side always.
Speaker 3
40:51
Okay, but that was 4 dimensions of taste receptors. But you also had pain receptors on that tongue, and probably heat receptors on that tongue. So let's assume that you had 1 of each.
Speaker 3
41:02
That would be 6 dimensions. So when you eat something, you eat a slice of pizza, and it's got some hot pepper on it, maybe some jalapeno, you're having a six-dimensional experience, dude.
Speaker 2
41:17
Do you think we overemphasize the value of time as 1 of the dimensions or space? Well, we certainly overemphasize the value of time because we like things to start and end, or we really don't like things to end, but they seem to.
Speaker 3
41:30
Well, what if you flipped 1 of the spatial dimensions into being a temporal dimension? And you and I were to meet in New York City and say, well, where and when should we meet? Say, how about I'll meet you on 36th and Lexington at 2 in the afternoon and 11 o'clock in the morning.
Speaker 3
41:52
That would be very confusing.
Speaker 2
41:56
Well, so it's convenient for us to think about time, you mean?
Speaker 3
41:59
We happen to be in a delicious situation in which we have 3 dimensions of space and 1 of time and they're woven together in this sort of strange fabric where we can trade off a little space for a little time, but we still only have 1 dimension that is picked out relative to the other 3. It's very much Gladys Knight and the Pips.
Speaker 2
42:15
So which 1 developed for who? Do we develop for these dimensions or did the dimensions, or were they always there and it doesn't?
Speaker 3
42:23
Well, do you imagine that there isn't a place where there are 4 temporal dimensions or 2 and 2 of space and time or 3 of time and 1 of space and then would time not be playing the role of space? Why do you imagine that the sector that you're in is all that there is?
Speaker 2
42:38
I certainly do not, but I can't imagine otherwise. I mean, I haven't done ayahuasca or any of those drugs that I'd hope to 1 day, but.
Speaker 3
42:45
Instead of doing ayahuasca, you could just head over to building 2.
Speaker 2
42:49
That's where the mathematicians are? Yeah, that's where they hang. Just to look at some geometry?
Speaker 3
42:53
Well, just ask about pseudo-Romanian geometry. That's what you're interested in. Or you could talk to a shaman and end up in Peru.
Speaker 2
43:01
And then some extra money for that trip.
Speaker 3
43:02
Yeah, but you won't be able to do any calculations if that's how you choose to go about it.
Speaker 2
43:06
Well, a different kind of calculation. So to speak. Yeah.
Speaker 2
43:09
1 of my favorite people, Edward Frankel, Berkeley professor, author of Love and Math, great title for a book, said that you were quite a remarkable intellect to come up with such beautiful original ideas in terms of unified theory and so on, but you were working outside academia. So 1 question in developing ideas that are truly original, truly interesting, what's the difference between inside academia and outside academia when it comes to developing such ideas? Oh, it's
Speaker 3
43:40
a terrible choice, terrible choice. So if you do it inside of academics, you are forced to constantly show great loyalty to the consensus and you distinguish yourself with small, almost microscopic heresies to make your reputation in general. And you have very competent people and brilliant people who are working together, who are, who form very deep social networks and have a very high level of behavior, at least within mathematics and at least technically within physics, theoretical physics.
Speaker 3
44:27
When you go outside, you meet lunatics and crazy people. Mad men. And these are people who do not usually subscribe to the consensus position and almost always lose their way. And The key question is, will progress likely come from someone who has miraculously managed to stay within the system and is able to take on a larger amount of heresy that is sort of unthinkable, in which case that will be fascinating?
Speaker 3
45:04
Or is it more likely that somebody will maintain a level of discipline from outside of academics and be able to make use of the freedom that comes from not having to constantly affirm your loyalty to the consensus of your field.
Speaker 2
45:21
So you've characterized in ways that academia in this particular sense is declining. You posted a plot, the older population of the faculty is getting larger, the younger is getting smaller and so on. So which direction of the 2 are you more hopeful about?
Speaker 3
45:40
Well, the baby boomers can't hang on forever. What's it first
Speaker 2
45:43
of all in general true and second of all in academia. But that's really what this time is about. Is the baby boomers.
Speaker 3
45:50
We didn't, we're used to like financial bubbles that last a few years in length and then pop. The baby boomer bubble is this really long lived thing. And all of the ideology, all of the behavior patterns, the norms, you know, for example, string theory is an almost entirely baby boomer phenomena.
Speaker 3
46:11
It was something that baby boomers were able to do because it required a very high level of mathematical ability.
Speaker 2
46:20
You don't think of string theory as an original idea?
Speaker 3
46:24
Oh, I mean, it was original to Veneziano, probably is older than the baby boomers. And there are people who are younger than the baby boomers who are still doing string theory. And I'm not saying that nothing discovered within the large string theoretic complex is wrong.
Speaker 3
46:38
Quite the contrary, a lot of brilliant mathematics and a lot of the structure of physics was elucidated by string theorists. What do I think of the deliverable nature of this product that will not ship called string theory? I think that it is largely an affirmative action program for highly mathematically and geometrically talented baby boomer physicists so that they can say that they're working on something within the constraints of what they will say is quantum gravity. Now there are other schemes, you know, there's like asymptotic safety, there are other things that you could imagine doing.
Speaker 3
47:16
I don't think much of any of the major programs, but to have inflicted this level of loyalty through a shibboleth, well surely you don't question X. Well I question almost everything in the string program. And that's why I got out of physics. When you called me a physicist, it was a great honor.
Speaker 3
47:37
But the reason I didn't become a physicist wasn't that I fell in love with mathematics. As I said, wow, in 1984, 1983, I saw the field going mad. And I saw that mathematics, which has all sorts of problems, was not going insane. And so instead of studying things within physics, I thought it was much safer to study the same objects within mathematics.
Speaker 3
47:59
There's a huge price to pay for that. You lose physical intuition. But the point is that it wasn't a North Korean re-education camp either.
Speaker 2
48:08
Are you hopeful about cracking open Einstein unified theory in a way that has been really, really understanding whether this uniting everything together with quantum theory and so on.
Speaker 3
48:21
I mean, I'm trying to play this role myself to do it to the extent of handing it over to the more responsible, more professional, more competent community. So I think that they're wrong about a great number of their belief structures, but I do believe, I mean I have a really profound love-hate relationship with this group of people. I think.
Speaker 3
48:47
Oh yeah.
Speaker 2
48:48
Because the mathematicians actually seem to be much more open-minded and. Well, they are and
Speaker 3
48:53
they aren't. They're open-minded about anything that looks like great math. Right.
Speaker 3
48:57
They'll study something that isn't very important physics, but if it's beautiful mathematics, then they'll have, they have great intuition about these things. As good as the mathematicians are, and I might even intellectually at some horsepower level give them the edge, the theoretical physics community is bar none the most profound intellectual community that we have ever created. It is the number 1, there is nobody in second place as far as I'm concerned. Look, in their spare time, in their spare time they invented molecular biology.
Speaker 2
49:30
What was the origin of molecular biology? You're saying physicist?
Speaker 3
49:33
Well, somebody like Francis Crick.
Speaker 1
49:34
I
Speaker 3
49:34
mean, a lot of the early molecular biologists. Were physicists? Yeah, I mean, Schrodinger wrote, What is Life?
Speaker 3
49:42
And that was highly inspirational. I mean, you have to appreciate that there is no community like the basic research community in theoretical physics. And it's not something, I'm highly critical of these guys. I think that they would just wasted the decades of time with a near religious devotion to their misconception conceptualization of where the problems were in physics.
Speaker 3
50:13
But this has been the greatest intellectual collapse ever witnessed within academics.
Speaker 2
50:19
You see it as a collapse or just a lull?
Speaker 3
50:22
Oh, I'm terrified that we're about to lose the vitality. We can't afford to pay these people. We can't afford to give them an accelerator just to play with in case they find something at the next energy level.
Speaker 3
50:35
These people created our economy. They gave us the Rad Lab and radar. They gave us 2 atomic devices to end World War II. They created the semiconductor and the transistor to power our economy through Moore's law.
Speaker 3
50:51
As a positive externality of particle accelerators, they created the World Wide Web. And we have the insolence to say, Why should we fund you with our taxpayer dollars? No, the question is, are you enjoying your physics dollars? Right, these guys signed the world's worst licensing agreement.
Speaker 3
51:12
And if they simply charged for every time you used a transistor or a URL or enjoyed the peace that they have provided during this period of time through the terrible weapons that they developed or your communications devices. All of the things that power our economy, I really think came out of physics, even to the extent that chemistry came out of physics and molecular biology came out of physics. So, first of all, you have to know that I'm very critical of this community. Second of all, it is our most important community.
Speaker 3
51:44
We have neglected it, we've abused it, we don't take it seriously, We don't even care to get them to rehab after a couple of generations of failure. I think the youngest person to have really contributed to the standard model at a theoretical level was born in 1951, right? Frank Wilczek. And almost nothing has happened that in theoretical physics after 1973, 74 that sent somebody to Stockholm for theoretical development, the predicted experiment.
Speaker 3
52:21
So we have to understand that we are doing this to ourselves. Now with that said, these guys have behaved abysmally, in my opinion, because they haven't owned up to where they actually are, what problems they're really facing, how definite they can actually be. They haven't shared some of their most brilliant discoveries which are desperately needed in other fields like gauge theory, which at least the mathematicians can share, which is an upgrade of the differential calculus of Newton and Leibniz. And they haven't shared the importance of renormalization theory, even though this should be standard operating procedure for people across the sciences dealing with different layers and different levels of phenomena.
Speaker 2
53:01
So- And by shared you mean communicated in such a way that it disseminates throughout the different sides.
Speaker 3
53:06
These guys are sitting, both theoretical physicists and mathematicians are sitting on top of a giant stockpile of intellectual gold. All right, they have so many things that have not been manifested anywhere. I was just on Twitter, I think I mentioned the Habermann switch pitch that shows the self-duality of the tetrahedron realized as a linkage mechanism.
Speaker 3
53:29
Now this is like a triviality and it makes an amazing toy that's built a market, hopefully a fortune for Chuck Habermann. Well, you have no idea how much great stuff that these priests have in their monastery.
Speaker 2
53:44
So it's truly a love and hate relationship for you. It sounds like it's more on the love side.
Speaker 3
53:49
This building that we're in right here is the building in which I really put together the conspiracy between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation through the government university industry research round table to destroy the bargaining power of American academics using foreign labor. With a micro feature in the base. Oh yeah, that was done here
Speaker 2
54:12
in this building. Isn't that weird? And I'm Truly speaking with a revolutionary and a radical.
Speaker 2
54:18
No, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1
54:18
no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 3
54:19
no, no. At an intellectual level, I am absolutely garden variety. I'm just straight down the middle.
Speaker 3
54:27
The system that we are in, This university is functionally insane. Harvard is functionally insane. And we don't understand that when we get these things wrong, the financial crisis made this very clear. There was a long period where every grownup, everybody with a tie who spoke in baritone tones with the right degree at the end of their name, which was talking about how we banished volatility.
Speaker 3
54:59
We were in the great moderation. Okay. They were all crazy. And who was right?
Speaker 3
55:05
It was like Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini. Now, what happens is that they claimed the market went crazy, but the market didn't go crazy. The market had been crazy, and what happened is that it suddenly went sane. Well that's where we are with academics.
Speaker 3
55:21
Academics right now is mad as a hatter. And it's absolutely evident. I can show you graph after graph, I can show you the internal discussions, I can show you the conspiracies. Harvard's dealing with 1 right now over its admissions policies for people of color who happen to come from Asia.
Speaker 3
55:38
All of this madness is necessary to keep the game going. What we're talking about, just while we're on the topic of revolutionaries, is we're talking about the danger of an outbreak of sanity. Yeah, you're the guy pointing out the elephant in the room here. And the elephant has no clothes.
Speaker 2
55:57
Is that how that goes? I was gonna talk a little bit to Joe Rogan about this, we're running out of time. But I think you have some, just listening to you, you could probably speak really eloquently to academia on the difference between the different fields.
Speaker 2
56:16
So you think there's a difference between science, engineering, and then the humanities and academia in terms of tolerance that they're willing to tolerate? So from my perspective, I thought computer science and maybe engineering is more tolerant to radical ideas, but that's perhaps innocent of me. Because I always, you know, all the battles going on now are a little bit more on the humanity side and gender studies and so on.
Speaker 3
56:42
Have you seen the American Mathematical Society's publication of an essay called Get Out the Way. I am not, what's the idea? The idea is that white men who hold positions within universities and mathematics should vacate their positions so that young black women can take over something like this.
Speaker 2
57:03
That's in terms of diversity, which I also want to ask you about, but in terms of diversity of strictly ideas.
Speaker 3
57:09
Oh sure.
Speaker 2
57:10
Do you think, because you're basically saying physics as a community has become a little bit intolerant to some degree to new radical ideas? Or at least you said that's.
Speaker 3
57:21
Well it's changed a little bit recently, which is that even string theory is now admitting, okay, we don't, this doesn't look Very promising in the short term, right? So the question is what compiles, if you want to take the computer science metaphor, what will get you into a journal? Will you spend your life trying to push some paper into a journal or will it be accepted easily?
Speaker 3
57:47
What do we know about the characteristics of the submitter and what gets taken up and what does not? All of these fields are experiencing pressure because no field is performing so brilliantly well that it's revolutionizing
Speaker 2
58:08
our way of speaking and thinking in the ways in which we've become accustomed. But don't you think, even in theoretical physics, a lot of times, even with theories like string theory, you could speak to this, it does eventually lead to what are the ways that this theory would be testable? And so.
Speaker 2
58:26
Yeah, ultimately, although, look, there's this thing about Popper and the scientific method that's a cancer and
Speaker 3
58:32
a disease in the minds of very smart people. That's not really how most of the stuff gets worked out, it's how it gets checked. And there is a dialogue between theory and experiment.
Speaker 3
58:45
But everybody should read Paul Dirac's 1963 American, Scientific American article where he, it's very interesting, he talks about it as if it was about the Schrodinger equation and Schrodinger's failure to advance his own work because of his failure to account for some phenomenon. The key point is that if your theory is a slight bit off, it won't agree with experiment,
Speaker 2
59:09
but it
Speaker 3
59:10
doesn't mean that the theory is actually wrong. But Dirac could as easily have been talking about his own equation in which he predicted that the electrons should have an antiparticle. And since the only positively charged particle that was known at the time was the proton, Heisenberg pointed out, well, shouldn't your antiparticle, the proton, have the same mass as the electron and doesn't that invalidate your theory?
Speaker 3
59:33
So I think that Dirac was actually being quite, potentially quite sneaky and talking about the fact that he had been pushed off of his own theory to some extent by Heisenberg. But look, we fetishized the scientific method and popper and falsification because it protects us from crazy ideas entering the field. So, you know, it's a question of balancing type 1 and type 2 error and we're pretty, we were pretty maxed out.
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